TRAFFIX sees freight rates staying high into 2026

TRAFFIX says tight truck capacity, not diesel, is keeping freight rates near multi-year highs and could keep them elevated through Q3 2026. The logistics provider is urging shippers to budget above 2025 levels and lock in capacity earlier as spot pricing continues to outpace contract rates.

Why it matters: - Freight costs could stay elevated through most of 2026, pressuring shipper budgets and transportation planning. - A spot-over-contract rate inversion often signals further increases in contract pricing, making long-term freight budgets harder to lock in. - Shippers that wait to buy capacity may face higher costs and weaker pickup reliability as carrier leverage improves.

What happened: - TRAFFIX released its TRAFFIX Trends Q3 2026 Market Update on July 14, 2026. - The report says tightening truck capacity, not diesel prices, is the main force keeping freight rates near multi-year highs. - TRAFFIX says spot rates have moved above contract rates, creating a rare inversion that points to more cost pressure ahead. - Alex Fuller, Vice President of Commercial Intelligence at TRAFFIX, said shippers need to plan around capacity for the rest of the year.

The details: - TRAFFIX advises shippers to use current market costs, not 2025 pricing, as the baseline for 2026 budgets. - TRAFFIX recommends three near-term steps: budget more for spot-market, expedited and high-demand lane shipments; secure capacity early on key lanes; and build flexibility with intermodal, LTL consolidation and advance planning. - The report lays out three scenarios for the rest of 2026: rates stay high if capacity remains tight; rates ease if economic demand weakens; or rates rise further if diesel spikes because of Middle East conflict or depleted oil reserves. - TRAFFIX says tender rejection rates are pushing shippers toward secondary carriers and the spot market. - The report says new trucking authorities are entering the market too slowly to close the capacity gap. - U.S. manufacturing activity has expanded for six straight months. - Rising inventory levels suggest shippers are moving freight earlier to manage tight capacity and prepare for possible tariffs. - U.S. spot freight rates rose above contract rates in late May and stayed higher through July. - Spot rates reached $3.79 per mile in June and $3.69 per mile in July. - The FreightWaves SONAR Supply Chain Pricing Power Index is near 70, up from below 50 for most of 2023 and 2024. - TRAFFIX says that reading shows carriers now have more negotiating leverage than shippers. - Dry van rates are expected to stay elevated through 2026 because of tight capacity. - Flatbed rates are projected to keep climbing on construction and infrastructure demand. - Intermodal volumes are expected to rise more than 20% year over year as shippers look for alternatives to truckload. - Refrigerated capacity is expected to stay tight through the end of produce season. - Cross-border conditions are expected to remain generally stable, with tighter conditions in reefer, expedited and high-demand U.S.-Mexico lanes. - TRAFFIX directs readers to the TRAFFIX Trends Q3 2026 Market Update for more information.

Between the lines: - The report suggests the freight market is being driven more by supply constraints than by a broad fuel shock. - The spot-over-contract gap matters because it can pressure contract renewals upward even if spot rates stop rising. - Shippers appear to be responding defensively by front-loading freight and diversifying modes before conditions tighten further.

What's next: - TRAFFIX expects the most likely outcome is continued high rates through year-end if capacity does not recover. - Rate relief would likely require weaker freight demand or a meaningful increase in available trucking capacity. - If fuel spikes, the market could move higher faster than current record levels.