AGP Executive Report

Mexico Power Build-Out: President Claudia Sheinbaum inaugurated Baja California’s González Ortega combined-cycle plant and unveiled record grid subsidies, including 1.485 billion pesos in rate support for Mexicali and San Felipe, aiming to cut emissions and stabilize household bills. Venezuela Political Pivot: Interim leader Delcy Rodríguez said Venezuela is “on the right path” after the US capture of Maduro, framing renewed US ties as a diplomatic route to settle differences while opening the door to private investment. Colombia Election Shock: Abelardo de la Espriella, a Trump-backed right-wing lawyer, was projected to win a razor-thin presidential runoff, setting up a new conservative era and triggering protests and disputes over vote counts. Oil Market & Shipping Relief: US issued a 60-day sanctions waiver for Iranian crude and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz began to recover, easing pressure on global flows and raising hopes for energy stability. Brazil Offshore Scrutiny: A report on Petrobras’ planned exploration in the Foz do Amazonas highlights local fears about spills and the challenge of winning community trust for new oil activity. Climate & Food Risk: WFP warned El Niño conditions are strengthening and could become among the strongest on record, raising hunger risks where preparation time is short. Energy Transition Watch: Reuters flagged gas flaring hitting a six-year high in 2025, underscoring why associated gas capture still lags in key oil-producing countries.

Colombia Politics: Abelardo de la Espriella, a Trump-backed hard-right lawyer, narrowly won Colombia’s presidential runoff, ending Petro’s leftist era; Ivan Cepeda urged calm after clashes and unrest in Bogotá and Cali. Oil & Trade: Mexico’s president is seeking to restart oil shipments to Cuba as the island’s crises deepen, while broader market coverage flags how Strait of Hormuz reopening and US-Iran talks are easing crude pressure. Energy Transition & Industry: A report warns China’s coal-chemicals boom could repeat past mistakes, as new coal-to-gas and coal-to-chemical projects expand amid energy-security concerns. Regional Energy Deals: Venezuela Energy Week 2026 is set to launch a deal room aimed at accelerating energy investment and transactions. Power & Renewables: Brazil’s Dona Francisca hydropower ownership is shifting as Gerdau moves to take full control, and Cuba is moving to privatize state firms while opening energy to foreign and private capital. Supply Chain Scrutiny: Protests in Mexico target Hyundai’s FIFA-linked steel supply chain via Ternium amid pollution and human-rights allegations.

Colombia Election: Trump-backed lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella narrowly won Colombia’s presidential runoff over Ivan Cepeda, setting up a sharp policy turn after four years of leftist rule—especially around security, the drug war, and the oil-and-gas agenda. Renewables Deal: NOVVA Group agreed to buy a Colombian solar portfolio from ABO Energy—three projects totaling 37.8 MWac, targeting early-2028 operations. Energy Markets & Geopolitics: With the Strait of Hormuz still a key risk factor, reporting highlights how oil flows and crude sourcing are being reshuffled, including India’s continued diversification amid uncertainty. Brazil Power Transition: Coverage notes YPF and Tesla’s push for fast charging and storage in Argentina, while broader regional investment themes keep pointing to grid-ready clean power. Infrastructure & Climate Finance: A new push argues national climate plans need more private investment and bankable, sector-specific policies to move from targets to projects.

Strait of Hormuz Reset: U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is back to “normal” after a U.S.-Iran framework, with Iran expected to resume exports of more than 1.5 million barrels per day—an immediate swing factor for global prices and importers. Iran Talks Pressure: At the same time, Trump warned Iran to rein in Lebanon-linked “proxies” ahead of Switzerland talks, keeping geopolitical risk premium alive even as flows reopen. Uruguay’s Renewables Playbook: A look at Uruguay’s drought-era power crisis and how it rebuilt supply—now drawing up to 98% of electricity from wind, solar, hydro and biomass—offers a regional template for resilience. Household Energy Costs: A World Bank-linked survey across middle-income countries finds households cope differently than experts expect when energy prices rise, and they want more practical government support. Chile Labor Stability: Capstone Copper ratified three-year collective bargaining agreements at its Mantos Blancos mine in Chile, supporting operational continuity. Caribbean Energy Security Agenda: OECS leaders met in Antigua and Barbuda to prioritize economic development, climate resilience, security, food and energy security, and digital transformation.

US-Iran Diplomacy & Oil Flows: US Vice President JD Vance arrived in Switzerland to help launch talks aimed at solidifying an interim deal to end the Iran war, as Iran again claimed it closed the Strait of Hormuz and the US disputed that—keeping global oil transit and prices in focus. Energy Security Watch: Analysts say the world avoided worst-case Hormuz disruption thanks to reserves, North American output, alternate routes and fast market shifts, but depleted stockpiles could make future shocks harder to absorb. Venezuela Sanctions & Health Access: Venezuela’s VP for science and health says WHO/PAHO vaccine and medicine channels remain blocked due to US unilateral coercive measures, forcing “acrobatics” despite available funds. Oil Market Signals for the Americas: EIA data show Iraq’s crude exports to the US fell to zero last week; Venezuela, Mexico and Brazil were among the top suppliers. Regional Power Sector Shift: India’s ONGC is repositioning toward a more gas-led model, with gas output set to grow faster than crude. Colombia Election Integrity: Both presidential campaigns are ramping up polling-station monitoring to prevent fraud, with major implications for the country’s oil and economic direction.

Border Security & Readiness: The Pentagon’s “Ardent Vanguard” keeps about 9,000 troops deployed along nearly 2,000 miles of the U.S.-Mexico border, pushing cartel activity into harder terrain while lawmakers question whether the mission drains training and readiness. Cuba Reform Push: Cuban lawmakers approved nearly 200 free-market reforms, including opening private banking and loosening state controls, but economists warn implementation could lag and benefits may skew to insiders. Venezuela Sanctions Relief (Limited): OFAC issued new general licenses for narrow operations tied to PDVSA bond dealings, Conviasa aviation safety work, and telecom transactions—sanctions remain in place. Oil Market Shock Watch: As Iran-U.S. tensions flare again, the Strait of Hormuz closure threat is back in focus, with analysts tracking how quickly supply workarounds can offset disruptions. Clean Energy & Finance Deals: Latin America’s M&A market is seeing fewer deals but larger average sizes, with investors still targeting renewable energy, tech, and infrastructure. Caribbean Tourism & Energy Link: Dominican tourism officials say cruise activity is being actively managed to protect the sector that they call “oil is tourism,” underscoring how energy-linked logistics shape visitor flows.

Bolivia Energy & Social Unrest: President Rodrigo Paz declared a state of emergency after more than six weeks of road blockades tied to fuel-subsidy cuts and soaring living costs, with shortages of food, fuel and medicines reported as protests demand wage relief and his resignation. Cuba Fuel Blockade Relief: Despite a US fuel blockade, Washington continues sending disaster aid for Hurricane Melissa victims via Caritas, highlighting how energy constraints still shape humanitarian access and electricity and water recovery on the island. Regional Power & Oil Politics: US President Trump floated a possible Cuba operation “possibly” similar to the Venezuela raid, while Washington also dismissed Cuba’s new free-market reforms as “superficial,” underscoring the tight link between energy policy, sanctions and political pressure. Oil Market Watch: India’s refiners are leaning harder on Russian crude as Middle East supply uncertainty persists, with June imports projected to hit record levels amid shifting global flows. Climate Signal: NOAA says El Niño is underway and could become “super,” raising the odds of major weather disruptions across the Americas. Food Inflation Link: “Tomatoflation” is driving US grocery pressure after Florida freezes and Mexico setbacks hit fresh tomato supply, pushing prices to record highs.

Oil Market Watch: Iran’s interim deal-driven exports and the Strait of Hormuz reopening helped push crude lower and keep gasoline under $4 in the US, even as follow-up talks in Geneva were postponed and signals about the waterway’s status added volatility. US Defense Spending: The Pentagon is seeking about $80 billion from Congress to cover Iran-war costs and other expenses, underscoring how Middle East conflict is feeding back into US budgets and readiness. Cuba Economic Shift: Cuba’s parliament approved 174 economic reforms in a week, aiming to loosen state control and open space for private capital, though analysts warn implementation may lag. Venezuela Dialogue: Venezuela’s National Assembly launched a US-backed political dialogue with an opposition figure, framing it around rebuilding institutions and electoral guarantees. Power Grid Deals: Venezuela signed agreements with General Electric to restore and upgrade its electricity system, as the country tries to stabilize supply amid recovery pressures. Regional Clean-Energy Push: CELAC and OLADE launched a regional strategy for clean energy interconnection, targeting cross-border grid links across Latin America.

Energy Security & Geopolitics: A new analysis warns the US-Iran conflict is turning into a broader energy, logistics, fertilizer, food and financial shock that could keep global systems disrupted through 2027, even if hostilities ease. Oil Market Watch: With the Strait of Hormuz reopening framed as a key pressure release, markets are still reacting to uncertainty and shifting supply flows. Biofuels in Focus: Illinois is expanding biodiesel capacity as higher diesel prices and tax incentives boost demand, highlighting how oil shocks are pushing more countries toward homegrown fuel options. Climate Policy: The UN climate chief says Bonn talks made progress on “just transition” and electricity targets, but warns against backsliding as geopolitics complicates COP31 preparations. Grid & Power Projects: Venezuela signed agreements with GE Vernova to modernize and rebuild parts of its electrical system, aiming to stabilize power delivery. Mining & Batteries: Mozambique’s new mining rules requiring a 15% state stake and tighter export controls could deter foreign investment, even as graphite demand rises for EV and storage supply chains. Caribbean Energy Angle: Jamaica is in talks with the US on accepting third-country deportees, a reminder of how policy shifts can ripple into regional planning priorities.

Venezuela Power Grid Push: Venezuela signed deals with GE Vernova and General Electric to modernize and rebuild its national electricity grid, aiming to stabilize supply amid ongoing transition pressures. Mexico Environmental Accountability: Mexico’s environmental watchdog (CEC) will review a complaint over alleged hydrocarbon contamination from a Pemex well incident in Veracruz, with health and farming impacts cited. Caribbean Renewables Coordination: The Caribbean Development Bank launched a regional initiative to study renewable scaling and regional grid interconnection options, targeting lower reliance on imported fossil fuels. Peru Clean Power Investment: UAE climate fund Alterra, via I Squared, co-invested in Peru’s Inkia Energy to expand renewables capacity and support decarbonization. LNG Cost Overruns **Venezuela Power Grid Push: Venezuela signed deals with GE Vernova and General Electric to modernize and rebuild its national electricity grid, targeting more reliable power supply. Mexico Environmental Accountability: Mexico’s environmental watchdog (CEC) will review a complaint alleging Pemex hydrocarbon contamination from a Veracruz oil-well incident, with claims of ongoing emissions and harm to waterways, crops and nearby communities. Caribbean Renewables Coordination: The Caribbean Development Bank launched a regional program to map how countries can scale renewables and strengthen networks, including feasibility work for submarine interconnections. Peru Clean Power Investment: UAE climate fund Alterra, through I Squared, co-invested in Peru’s Inkia Energy, backing renewables expansion that supports a large share of national generation. LNG Cost Overruns: A new report says North American LNG terminals are commonly running far over budget and schedule, raising taxpayer and financial-risk concerns.

Energy Geopolitics: G7 leaders backed a US-Iran ceasefire framework that aims to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and calm energy-market disruption, while analysts warn normalization could still take months. Oil Market Watch: Commentary argues the feared Hormuz shock never fully materialized as markets adjusted, shifting the focus to longer-term logistics and supply-chain strain. Brazil Monetary Policy: Brazil’s central bank cut rates again to 14.25% and left future moves open, citing a tougher inflation outlook tied to election-year spending and oil-price risks. Venezuela Power & Gas Deals: Venezuela signed with GE Vernova to modernize the national grid, while Shell and partners advanced gas and oil agreements, including a reported 7 tcf Loran gas deal. Regional Finance: BRICS’ New Development Bank approved a $1bn loan for South Africa’s municipal water, sanitation and waste upgrades. Trade & Energy Link: USMCA uncertainty is resurfacing as Trump questions renewal, with talks including agriculture and energy provisions. Latin America Industry: China’s BYD expanded NEV production in Brazil’s Bahia, and Chinese automakers’ “full-chain” push is boosting exports—raising questions for local energy demand and grid planning.

US-Iran Energy Shockwave: G7 leaders backed Trump’s tentative Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend a ceasefire, with the accord due to be signed in Switzerland on Friday—helping oil prices slide and easing near-term supply fears. Global Macro Spillover: A separate analysis warns the real damage is broader than crude—energy, shipping, fertilizer, food and finance could stay disrupted into 2027 even if fighting cools. Venezuela Power Push: Venezuela signed with GE Vernova to modernize and rebuild its national grid, adding to a flurry of utility and oil-and-gas deals aimed at restoring electricity supply. Venezuela Upstream Data: Geoex MCG was named official geosciences partner for Venezuela Energy Week 2026, positioning reprocessed offshore seismic data for licensing. Argentina Legal Twist: Investors in YPF moved to block enforcement of a now-overturned $16B New York judgment against Argentina while a US appeal proceeds. Cybersecurity Watch: ESET flagged China-aligned cyberespionage activity targeting Venezuela-linked maritime/energy interests amid Gulf instability.

US-Iran Energy Shock Fallout: A new analysis warns the US-Iran conflict’s real damage is broader than oil—hitting shipping, fertilizer, food and finance, with normalization likely taking months to years even if hostilities ease. G7 Sanctions & Hormuz: G7 leaders in France backed stronger Russia oil-and-gas sanctions while pointing to a US-Iran deal meant to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key global chokepoint. US-Iran $300B Fund: Reuters reports a $300 billion private investment vehicle for Iran reconstruction is outlined in the framework, with more than half already pledged and projects spanning energy, logistics, manufacturing and transport. Argentina Finance: The World Bank issued guarantees enabling Argentina to access up to $2B in commercial loans, aiming to lower borrowing costs as debt payments loom. Venezuela Grid Modernization: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez signed an MoU with GE Vernova to modernize generation and reinforce Venezuela’s national electric system. Brazil Solar Financing: Brazil’s distributed solar financing rose in 2025 even as utility-scale investment fell, signaling a shift in where capital is flowing. Trade Risk for Mexico: Trump said USMCA renewal could be threatened, adding uncertainty for Mexico’s energy and industrial supply chains tied to North American trade. El Niño Watch: Forecasters say El Niño has arrived, raising risks of heat and drought that could stress water and power systems across the region.

Venezuela Power Grid Recovery: Venezuela signed a memorandum with GE Vernova and state utility Corpoelec to repair and modernize the national grid, targeting 1,000 MW restored in 24 months and 5,000+ MW within 4-5 years, as reforms open the sector to foreign investment. Venezuela Gas & Renewables Push: The government also moved ahead on electricity and gas deals, including agreements tied to rebuilding capacity and expanding supply. US-Iran Energy Shock Spillover: A Reuters report says a US-Iran framework includes a $300B private investment fund (with over half already committed) to spur projects in energy, logistics, manufacturing and transport—aimed at easing the broader disruption that has been hitting global oil, shipping and fertilizer markets. Trade Policy Risk for Energy Flows: Trump signaled USMCA could expire unless renewed, adding uncertainty for North American energy and industrial supply chains tied to cross-border trade. Brazil Battery Manufacturing: BYD is scaling up battery production in Brazil and preparing investment for grid-scale battery storage ahead of upcoming auctions, linking EV supply chains to power-system flexibility. Regional Energy Access: Venezuela’s Gas Comunal reported LPG distribution logistics reaching tens of thousands of families in Mérida, underscoring ongoing fuel delivery challenges.

Grid Recovery in Venezuela: Interim President Delcy Rodríguez signed an MoU with General Electric Vernova to help rebuild Venezuela’s failing power system, with officials saying the plan could add up to 5 GW of capacity over four years, as Caracas grapples with long daily blackouts. Oil & Markets Shock from Iran Deal: Oil slid and stocks jumped after Trump signaled a tentative U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though analysts warn it could take months for tanker traffic to return to normal. Energy Security Pressure: The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to a four-decade low as emergency releases continue amid the Iran conflict, underscoring how geopolitics is draining buffers. Food-Fuel-Fertilizer Link: A forecast warns biofuel demand could surge as oil prices near $100, tightening competition between fuel and food while fertilizer constraints—also tied to Hormuz disruptions—raise staple costs. Climate Risk for the Region: NOAA confirmed El Niño is underway, with expectations for stronger-than-usual impacts that could disrupt agriculture and food systems across the Americas.

Colombia Peace & Energy Labor: Ecopetrol signed a six-year collective bargaining agreement with its main union (USO), after a June walkout over stalled talks, setting terms for pay, working conditions, and benefits for the state oil giant that drives about 60% of Colombia’s hydrocarbon output. Caribbean Energy Impacts: Cuba says U.S. energy restrictions are hitting healthcare hardest—delaying surgeries, disrupting dialysis, and worsening child cancer survival—while fuel shortages and long power outages strain the universal system. Colombia Election Security: Colombia’s ELN declared a unilateral ceasefire June 20–23 ahead of the June 21 presidential runoff, saying it won’t interfere with voting—though critics warn ceasefires can let armed groups regroup. Oil Market Shockwatch: A U.S.-Iran truce is easing oil prices, with Reuters noting Latin American airline shares jumped as jet-fuel costs look less threatening. Energy Transition Policy: COP30’s presidency in Bonn unveiled a roadmap framework for a fair, orderly fossil-fuel phaseout, emphasizing differentiated responsibilities and support for workers and communities. Mining & Water Stress: Argentina’s Andes mining debate intensifies as drought-shrunk rivers in San Juan raise fears over scarce water for new projects.