AGP Executive Report

Venezuela Power Sector: IMPSA says it’s renegotiating a long-stalled hydroelectric contract with Corpoelec, aiming to rehabilitate two Macagua units and potentially add up to 672 MW—an effort tied to payment and sanctions hurdles. Venezuela Grid Reform: Venezuela’s National Assembly has opened a public consultation on a partial reform of the Organic Law on the Electrical System and Service, seeking modernization and stronger protection for the national grid. Nuclear Nonproliferation: Venezuela reiterated at the IAEA that attacks or threats against peaceful nuclear facilities violate international law, calling for a no-double-standards consensus. Regional Energy Security: At the Al-Attiyah Foundation CEO Roundtable in Doha, leaders framed energy security as the dominant driver reshaping climate and investment priorities. Oil Market Shockwatch: Fitch expects the Strait of Hormuz disruption to be a temporary logistical shock, with Brent averaging lower in 2026 if the waterway reopens by late July. Brazil Debt Relief: Brazil’s Novo Desenrola program says it has helped 6 million people in its first days, clearing small debts and easing credit recovery for low- and middle-income borrowers.

Flex-Fuel Push: India launched E85 (85% ethanol) and a flex-fuel passenger vehicle to cut crude imports and boost domestic ethanol demand. Energy Security & Trade: Nigeria reported a record Q1 2026 merchandise trade surplus as the Dangote refinery ramp-up and Middle East-linked supply disruptions shifted demand toward refined products. Cuba Aid & Fuel Crisis: Mexico and Belize delivered 1,700 tons of basic goods to Cuba amid ongoing energy and economic shortages. LNG & Infrastructure Deals: Argentina’s first LNG export corridor to India moved forward as APSEZ secured a 10-year marine services contract, backed by $70M investment. Renewables Buildout: Mexico awarded 7.4 GW of renewable capacity in its first mixed investment tender, signaling continued scaling of distributed generation. Grid Resilience: The World Bank added $9M to help the fuel-import-dependent Marshall Islands absorb sharply higher energy costs. Latin America Construction Materials: Vinci Construction agreed to buy Grupo TDM’s geosynthetics division in Peru, expanding ground-tech capacity across the region. Energy Transition Watch: A UN report warns AI could drive major growth in electricity use and water demand by 2030, undercutting efficiency gains.

Cuba-U.S. Pressure: President Miguel Díaz-Canel says Washington’s “maximum pressure” aims to provoke unrest, citing sanctions that worsen fuel shortages, power disruptions, and daily life. Aviation Fuel Crunch: Airlines at IATA’s Rio meeting warn jet fuel costs could be 70% higher year-on-year, cutting industry profits and likely pushing fares up. Mexico Renewables Push: CFE awarded 37 renewable projects totaling 7,411 MW in its first mixed investment tender, led by solar in the Yucatán and Northeast. Venezuela Power System Reform: Diosdado Cabello says easing electricity-system rules for mixed operation would let industry generate more of its own power, targeting relief for the SEN and adding megawatts in coming weeks. Venezuela-Türkiye Energy Talks: Delcy Rodríguez met Erdogan in Istanbul to expand trade, energy, mining, and logistics, with a stated goal to lift bilateral trade sharply. Food Security Meets Energy Risk: FAO warns Hormuz-linked disruptions threaten fertilizer and production, urging open trade in agricultural inputs and alternative logistics. Bolivia Unrest: President Rodrigo Paz signals a state of emergency and possible military deployment as protests choke supply and drive food and fuel price spikes. Brazil SAF Momentum: IATA says Brazil has the conditions to scale sustainable aviation fuel, leveraging biomass and ethanol feedstocks.

LNG Logistics Deal: Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) won a 10-year marine services contract for Argentina’s first LNG export project to India, via its unit Adani Harbour International and a consortium with Argentina’s Meridian Group; the work covers tug operations for LNG carriers, offshore logistics, supply support and crew transfers, backed by an estimated $70 million investment and supported by multiple high-spec vessels. Cuba Fuel Crisis: Cuba’s worsening fuel shortages are leaving “almendrones” antique cars idle and residents stuck in long waits for gasoline, as rolling blackouts and a deepening energy squeeze—blamed by officials on the U.S. blockade—push households toward scarce cooking fuels and intensify daily hardship. Energy Transition Watch: A new forecast flags needle coke demand surging as electric arc furnace steelmaking and lithium-ion battery anode production expand, with global demand projected to jump from 2.71 million metric tons (2025) to 11.48 million (2035). Resilience Planning (Caribbean): CDEMA’s chief praised Antigua and Barbuda’s new five-year resilience framework as a cross-sector roadmap to manage evolving hazards, including hurricanes, earthquakes, sargassum and oil spills.

Bolivia Energy-Security & Social Stability: Bolivia’s legislature passed a law letting President Rodrigo Paz deploy the military to clear roadblocks, after weeks of anti-government protests that have choked cities with food and medicine shortages. Cuba Humanitarian Supply: Cuba received 1,700 tons of basic goods from Mexico and Belize, underscoring how regional partners are trying to cushion the island’s energy and economic crunch. Venezuela–Guyana Legal Fight: Venezuela said it has “well-founded doubts” about the ICJ process over Essequibo after Guyana signaled it expects the 1899 award to be upheld, reiterating it won’t recognize any ICJ ruling. Aviation Fuel Pressure: IATA cut its 2026 airline profit outlook, warning of a fuel-cost shock tied to the Iran war and higher jet fuel prices—an issue that will ripple into Latin America’s carriers and travel demand. Grid & Market Stress (Heat): A report on extreme heat and wet-bulb survivability highlights rising climate risk that can strain power systems and public health across the region. Nuclear Cooperation: Argentina hosted a U.S.-led SMR workshop, signaling continued interest in next-gen nuclear services and investment.

Argentina Trade Openness: Argentina filed a letter of intent to join the CPTPP, aiming to link up with the UK for the first time since 1982, though accession could take 2–5 years and isn’t guaranteed. Peru Security Politics: Peruvians vote again for president amid rising crime, with a tight race between Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez and a large undecided bloc. Gulf Energy Risk: The U.S. says it shot down Iranian drones threatening the Strait of Hormuz as Iran and regional allies trade missile and drone strikes, keeping a key oil chokepoint under pressure. Airline Fuel Shock: Airlines meeting in Rio face margin strain from Iran-war fuel volatility plus aircraft delivery delays, pushing carriers toward higher fares and tighter capacity. Critical Minerals Watch: A new market read flags copper as likely to flip into a structural deficit by 2026, raising cost and project-timing pressure for producers and portfolio risk for investors. India–Venezuela Energy Push: India and Venezuela keep deepening long-term energy ties as crude flows shift, with officials signaling technical teams and investment interest. Peru Mining Dealmaking: India eyes critical minerals in Peru at WMC 2026, positioning the event as a bridge for investment and supply-chain access.

Power Reliability in the Caribbean: Jamaica restored service after a rare island-wide blackout, with officials calling the situation “unacceptable” and pointing to grid resilience concerns as hurricane season nears. Energy Transition & Critical Minerals: Peru issued a Supreme Decree naming uranium and lithium as “national pillars,” signaling a regulatory shift for the Macusani Plateau and boosting its role in clean-energy tech supply chains. Storm Watch: Mexico’s meteorological agencies are tracking Tropical Storm Amanda, with an 80% chance of cyclone development and potential impacts even if it stays offshore. Grid & Climate Risk: Colombia is bracing for El Niño, with 80% likelihood for the event to start this month and run into early 2027, raising stakes for water, food, and energy production. Oil & Gas Diplomacy: India and Venezuela are deepening energy cooperation as crude imports rise, with talks focused on long-term supply and investment beyond spot cargoes. Brazil Corporate Restructuring: Raízen secured creditor backing for a major out-of-court debt restructuring tied to its sugar, ethanol, and fuel business. Mexico Security for World Cup: Mexico City is increasing police presence around the Zócalo Fan Fest as protests and unrest continue. Bolivia Protests: Police and protesters clashed in Santa Cruz over road blockades tied to calls for President Rodrigo Paz’s resignation, worsening shortages. Sustainability in Sports Venues: FIFA World Cup stadiums advanced green building certifications, with LEED-certified venues adding solar and cutting water and single-use plastics.

Jamaica Grid Shock: Jamaica suffered an island-wide blackout Friday after a system failure, with the Jamaica Public Service (JPS) working to restore power in phases; officials gave no cause or full timeline yet. Venezuela–India Energy Push: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez toured India’s Jamnagar refinery and met leaders in New Delhi and Mumbai to deepen hydrocarbons cooperation as India signals readiness to expand its presence in Venezuela’s reformed oil and gas sector. Colombia–Cuba Power Relief: Colombia shipped about 100 tons of humanitarian aid to Cuba from Cartagena, including solar panels and electrical materials aimed at supporting Cuba’s energy grid amid ongoing crisis conditions. Gulf Tensions, Energy Risk: Fresh US-Iran flare-ups included strikes and missile exchanges involving Kuwait and Bahrain, raising renewed concerns for Strait of Hormuz stability and regional energy flows. Peru Copper Output Up: Peru’s copper production rose 15% year-on-year in early 2026 as key mines reached steady state, strengthening supply outlook for the energy-transition and data-center demand cycle. Guyana Grid Modernization: InterEnergy outlined a roadmap to modernize Guyana’s GPL electricity grid through 2030, targeting a more reliable, resilient, digitally managed network. Colombia Coal Mine Fatality: Seven workers died in a coal mine explosion in central Colombia, with authorities citing methane buildup and launching a formal investigation. India Flex-Fuel Update: India launched E85 fuel in Delhi for flex-fuel vehicles, with officials stressing it is not interchangeable with E20-compatible cars.

Venezuela–India Energy Push: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez toured India’s Jamnagar refinery and met Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri to review a long-term energy agenda, as New Delhi seeks more reliable crude supply amid West Asia disruptions. Oil Market Shockwatch: Oil prices eased after U.S.–Iran diplomatic signals, but the broader theme remains tight transportation-fuel availability tied to Hormuz-related risks. Cuba Fuel Crisis Fallout: Sunwing and WestJet indefinitely suspended Cuba operations, pointing to ongoing hardship tied to the island’s energy situation. Jamaica Offshore Oil Hope: Jamaica’s energy ministry flagged early results from offshore exploratory drilling near Morant Bay, with potential development timelines stretching into the 2030s. Power Sector Reform (Venezuela): Venezuela moved to open its electricity system to private investment, aiming to address chronic reliability issues. Energy Security & Climate Resilience: Hurricane-season readiness coverage stressed how storms can disrupt power, fuel delivery, and refineries—especially across the Gulf and Caribbean.

Venezuela–India Energy Push: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez met India’s oil leadership in New Delhi, with both sides stressing “perfect complementarity” across upstream and downstream hydrocarbons and signaling a technical team visit to explore new energy opportunities. Venezuela Power-Sector Reform: Caracas is moving to open its electricity system to private investment after years of instability, as energy ties with India broaden beyond oil. Colombia–US Political Friction: President Gustavo Petro attacked Donald Trump’s endorsement of a Colombia runoff candidate tied to narco-paramilitary networks, raising stakes for how Washington and Bogotá handle security and drug policy. Mexico–Mexico/US Energy Risk: A major fuel-theft explosion in Mexico underlines ongoing supply-chain and enforcement vulnerabilities around hydrocarbons. Maritime Energy Deal: SBM Offshore agreed to sell a 45% stake in the Chalchi FSO project to NYK, keeping 55% while the vessel supports long-term crude storage for the Trion field off Mexico. Argentina–UK Falklands Oil Clash: Argentina warned it could fully act over new Falklands oil drilling plans, escalating a sovereignty dispute that directly affects offshore energy development. US Trade Pressure: The US proposed forced-labor tariffs on 60 economies, a move that could ripple through regional energy-linked supply chains.

Venezuela–India Energy Push: Venezuela’s acting president Delcy Rodríguez met India’s PM Narendra Modi and top diplomats in New Delhi, with both sides flagging expanded cooperation in hydrocarbons, critical minerals, and renewables as India seeks steadier crude supplies amid Middle East-linked disruptions. OPEC Shock Watch: A report on the UAE’s OPEC exit frames it as a sign of widening fractures inside the cartel and raises the question of whether Venezuela could face similar pressure. Power Sector Reform: Venezuela is moving to open its power sector to private investment after years of blackouts, aiming to stabilize supply and attract capital. Project Finance for Clean Tech: RE Royalties said it will present at Canada’s climate investor conference, highlighting non-dilutive royalty financing for solar, wind, hydro, and battery storage across the Americas. Aviation Fuel Anxiety (North Atlantic): Air Canada told customers there’s no expected jet fuel shortage to disrupt summer routes to Europe, after earlier IEA-linked warnings about Strait of Hormuz risks. Oil & Gas Infrastructure (Mexico): SBM Offshore announced plans to divest part of its stake in the FSO Chalchi tied to Woodside’s Trion field, underscoring continued deepwater investment momentum.

Venezuela–India Energy Push: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez met India’s PM Narendra Modi in New Delhi, with talks expected to deepen oil and broader energy cooperation as India boosts Venezuelan crude purchases amid Middle East supply disruptions. Cuba Tourism Fallout: Spain’s Melia will shut 15 hotels in Cuba, citing geopolitical and economic pressures; the move lands as Cuba’s tourism and power situation worsens. AI’s Energy Strain: A UN University report warns data centers already rival major countries in electricity use and could double energy and water impacts as AI demand grows. Climate and Food Risks: Reuters reports El Niño-linked heat and low rains are disrupting crop planting across Asia, threatening food supplies and raising grain prices. US Tariff Pressure: The US proposed forced-labor tariffs affecting 54 partners, including India and Mexico, adding trade uncertainty that can spill into energy-linked supply chains. Energy Security Debate: An op-ed argues fossil-fuel phase-out is the missing link in climate and energy policy, framing energy security as reducing dependence—not just securing supplies.

El Niño Watch: The UN and WMO say El Niño has an 80% chance of forming between June and August, with a 90% chance before year-end—raising risks of heat, drought, flooding, and wider knock-on effects across the Americas. AI Energy & Water Pressure: A UN University report warns AI and data centers already rival major countries’ environmental footprints, with electricity use and water demand set to surge as AI expands. US Tariff Shock Hits the Region: The US proposes new forced-labor tariffs up to 12.5% on imports from dozens of economies, adding fresh trade uncertainty for Latin American exporters. Brazil Trade Snapshot: Brazil’s May trade surplus hit $7.8B, boosted by higher export prices (including oil, copper, beef, and fuels) even as oil volumes fell on export-tax rules. Venezuela Energy Moves: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez begins a high-level India visit focused on deepening oil ties, while Venezuela also signals a push to expand private participation in energy investment. Caribbean LNG Milestone: Carnival completes Latin America’s first cruise ship LNG bunkering operation, a sign of growing LNG use in regional shipping.

Venezuela–India Energy Pivot: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez is set to visit India (June 3–7) with energy cooperation front and center as India boosts Venezuelan crude purchases amid Strait of Hormuz disruption. US Trade Pressure: The Trump administration proposed new forced-labor tariffs on imports from 60 economies, including Mexico and Brazil, with rates of 10% or 12.5% depending on country coverage—another potential cost shock for regional supply chains. US–Iran Standoff: Marco Rubio told lawmakers the US will not trade sanctions relief for reopening the Strait of Hormuz unless Iran meets nuclear demands, keeping oil-route risk elevated. Venezuela Political Trajectory: Rubio also said Venezuela no longer poses the same US security threat as under Maduro, while stressing democratic conditions and political prisoners remain unresolved. Power Market Watch: Qatar’s World Cup preparations are in full swing, but the bigger takeaway for energy readers is how major events are already driving logistics and fuel demand planning across host regions.

Venezuela Energy Openness: Delcy Rodríguez said new contracts this week aim to boost oil output, framing Venezuela as an “open-door” energy partner for investment. Power Sector Liberalization: Venezuela moves to open its power sector to private investment, signaling a push to attract capital beyond state control. Colombia Election Fallout: President Gustavo Petro renewed claims of possible fraud, citing alleged software changes affecting voter rolls and vote-counting tables ahead of the June runoff. El Niño Risk: The WMO warned of an 80% chance El Niño forms between June-August and could last to November, with climate change likely intensifying heat, drought, and heavy rainfall impacts across the region. Oil & Gas Transition Clash (Colombia): Spain’s Termocandelaria Power sued Colombia for $198m over alleged nonpayment tied to diesel- and gas-fired plants, highlighting how investor protections can complicate fossil-fuel phase-down plans. Cuba Sanctions Pressure: Cuba defended GAESA against U.S. accusations, arguing the military-run conglomerate helps fund development amid an oil blockade and tighter sanctions. Brazil Terror Designations: The U.S. moves to designate Brazil’s PCC and Comando Vermelho as terrorist groups, raising compliance risks for companies operating in Brazil.

El Niño Watch: The UN’s weather agency says there’s an 80% chance El Niño forms June–August and near/above 90% odds it lasts to at least November, raising risks of drought, heavy rain, and heatwaves across the Americas. Mexico Protests & Energy Security: Mexico City police used tear gas on teachers trying to reach the Zócalo ahead of 2026 World Cup fan-zone construction, underscoring how major events can disrupt public order and local planning. Rural Health Access: Flying Samaritans warns rising costs and fewer volunteers may limit near-monthly medical trips to rural Baja California Sur, where chronic disease care gaps persist. Latin America Business Climate: TMF’s Global Business Complexity Index flags Mexico and Brazil as among the hardest places for foreign firms to comply, citing shifting rules and compliance burdens. Oil Market Shock Risk: Iran-related Hormuz disruption plans are pushing crude higher, keeping supply-route uncertainty front and center for regional energy costs.