AGP Executive Report

LNG Deal: Petrobras will buy about 0.8 million tonnes per year of LNG from Cheniere Marketing under a 22-year agreement, aiming to lock in long-term supply and cut exposure to spot-price swings. Renewables Push: Brazil is targeting renewables to exceed 80% of its energy mix by 2055, with clean electricity rising to 97–99% of generation and major grid expansion to handle demand growth. Geothermal Support: The EU signaled willingness to partner on Nevis’ geothermal project, offering technical expertise and possible financial backing. Power Reliability in Venezuela: Venezuela’s government promised electricity improvements as blackout protests grow, highlighting how grid stress is shaping oil recovery. Energy Prices & Food: FAO reported world food prices rose in September, driven by weather and transport disruptions tied to energy and shipping bottlenecks. Market Watch: MidOcean Energy closed a 2026 equity raise exceeding $4 billion to expand a global LNG platform. Biofuels Debate: A report warns that scaling up biofuels could drive deforestation and habitat loss, while also pressuring land and food supplies. Oil & Exports: Pemex said crude exports fell 45% in August as it boosts domestic refining, reducing fuel imports.

LNG & Legal: A Manhattan judge backed Honeywell’s bid to confirm a $46M arbitral award tied to defective, delayed equipment for a liquefied natural gas plant in Louisiana, keeping pressure on the Mexican contractor. Venezuela Energy & Geopolitics: Trump said he’s “looking at” a possible U.S. military base in Venezuela while also pointing to Venezuelan crude for strategic reserve replenishment, as lawmakers question the legality of the U.S.-Venezuela oil deal. Power & Grid: Venezuela’s government says it will boost national power generation in Q4 2026, adding more than 1,000 MW via Planta del Centro and TERMOZULIA. Renewables in the region: Nevis is positioning a geothermal project for regional impact, while Puerto Rico faces record electric rates as demand and costs rise. Climate risk: Colombia’s Santa Isabel glacier is nearing extinction after losing 36% of its area in just over a year, underscoring mounting water and energy stress in the Andes. Argentina macro: The IMF signaled progress on Argentina’s stabilization plan and the next review step that could unlock about $900M.

Brazil Power Policy: GlobalData says Brazil’s electricity reforms, offshore wind rules, and low-carbon hydrogen support should lift renewables’ share from 48% to nearly 62%, with solar PV leading near-term additions and gas providing flexibility as hydrology swings. Argentina Energy Pitch: President Javier Milei told European investors in Paris that Argentina offers “abundant energy” and legal certainty, pushing copper, lithium, and uranium as Europe seeks new supply chains. Argentina Upstream Investment: TotalEnergies unveiled nearly US$10bn in Argentina projects, including an Alberdi offshore development in Tierra del Fuego (US$1.5bn) and major expansion in Vaca Muerta. Venezuela Oil & Power Strain: US lawmakers seek details on Venezuela oil deals as electricity issues threaten recovery, while reporting highlights ongoing sector comeback hopes amid sovereignty and licensing friction. Caribbean Grid & Renewables: CARICOM leaders flagged financing barriers holding back Caribbean renewable energy, as regional projects look to shore up power reliability. Critical Minerals Market Mood: REEx rankings question whether rare-earth investors reward delivery, spotlighting firms progressing outside China but still facing weak market response. Colombia Mining Conflict: A Colombian farmer and “Jericó 11” face charges for opposing AngloGold Ashanti’s Quebradona copper project, with protests centered on “water yes, mining no.” Energy Risk Watch: Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic has risen toward pre-crisis levels, keeping oil and diesel price pressure in focus for the region.

Hurricane Polo: A record-busy Pacific season is hitting Mexico as Hurricane Polo barrels toward Baja California Sur, with officials warning of damaging winds, storm surge and heavy rain. Venezuela–U.S. energy politics: Trump again framed a fast “Venezuela” operation while broader coverage highlights how U.S. pressure and sanctions dynamics keep Venezuela’s oil recovery uncertain. Brazil’s low-carbon fuel tracking: Petrobras is testing Cardano to prevent double-counting of sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel environmental attributes, aiming to make book-and-claim systems more auditable. Grid expansion in Venezuela: New generation additions are slated to boost the national power grid in late 2026, as hydro and thermal output ramps with international partners. Argentina–UK Falklands oil fight: Argentina threatens legal action over Sea Lion drilling, escalating the dispute over hydrocarbons around the Malvinas. Mexico industrial power: Neuman Aluminium selected Jasper to supply a tiltable 40-ton melting furnace for an expansion in San Juan del Río, with startup targeted for early 2028. Energy security lens: Commentary on Strait of Hormuz disruption underscores how maritime chokepoints can quickly ripple into fuel prices and import dependence across the region.

Argentina-UK Energy Dispute: President Javier Milei has given the UK a two-week ultimatum to halt the Sea Lion oil project off the Falklands/Malvinas, warning of international arbitration if work continues. Nuclear Safeguards in the Caribbean: Curaçao must pass its own implementing laws before the IAEA can expand nuclear oversight under a strengthened protocol; a 2019 inventory found “some nuclear material,” but type, quantity and location remain undisclosed. Mexico Grid Flexibility: CATL will supply a 313 MW/1.64 GWh battery energy storage system for the La Alegría Solar project in Campeche, expanding the previously approved configuration. EV Charging Interoperability: Mexico’s S2G Energy is integrating its EV Sync network into Hubject’s intercharge ecosystem to improve charging discoverability and pave the way for broader roaming. UN Leadership Watch: Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan tops another UN Security Council straw poll for the next secretary-general race, with the field still open amid veto politics. Regional Energy Context: Venezuela’s electricity recovery efforts and generation expansion continue to feature in coverage as the country navigates sanctions and grid stress.

Falklands Energy Clash: Argentina has given the UK a two-week ultimatum to halt the Sea Lion oil project off the Falkland Islands, warning it will seek an International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea order if drilling continues. Venezuela Oil Investment: Colombia’s GeoPark plans a $7 billion redevelopment of Venezuela’s Bare oilfield, targeting output rising from 11,000 bpd to about 90,000 bpd by 2038. Rare Earths Push (Brazil): Power Minerals extended high-grade rare earth mineralisation at Morro do Ferro, reporting 39m at 4.42% total rare earth oxides from 80m depth. Caribbean Climate-Health: CARICOM health ministers backed a PAHO Caribbean Action Plan on Health and Climate Change (2026–2031), linking hurricanes, heat, drought and dengue risks to stronger health systems. El Niño Preparedness: Barbados is preparing for the worst from a predicted record-strong Super El Niño, with water and energy stress flagged alongside agriculture and tourism impacts. Caribbean Renewables Finance: CARICOM is pushing to remove financing barriers holding back Caribbean renewable energy deployment. Colombia Bioenergy Idea: A pilot is testing whether invasive gorse in Colombia’s high Andes can be converted into biomass pellets for thermal energy. UN Leadership Race: The UN Security Council held its fourth straw poll for the next secretary-general, with seven candidates still in contention.

Falklands/Malvinas Legal Showdown: Argentina’s President Javier Milei has issued a two-week ultimatum to the UK to halt hydrocarbon work at the Sea Lion field, warning of arbitration and a possible move to the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea. Maritime Logistics Angle: Chile’s defense minister backed Argentina’s sovereignty claim while saying Magallanes should still be able to trade with the Falklands under international law, as a shipping route revival between the ports of the two territories is set for late 2026. Oil Market Watch: Oil prices rose for a second straight session as Middle East supply disruption fears linger around the Strait of Hormuz, even as crude exports from key producers hit higher levels. Cuba Reform vs. Sanctions: Cuba’s top trade official dismissed claims of Trump-linked business talks and said the US embargo remains the main barrier to implementing sweeping free-market reforms, including reforms constrained by an oil blockade. US Diesel Export Ban Debate: Analysts warned a proposed US diesel export ban could lower diesel prices but raise other fuel prices broadly, hitting importers across Mexico and South America. Energy Transition Tech (Caution): A “plastic to gasoline” lab breakthrough is getting attention, but readers are reminded it’s still early-stage and may not scale commercially.

Diesel export ban debate: The Trump administration is weighing a temporary U.S. diesel export ban as prices near record levels, with analysts warning it could ripple through Latin America where 60%-70% of U.S. diesel exports reportedly go to countries like Mexico, Brazil, Chile, and Ecuador. Argentina–UK energy showdown: Argentina’s Milei escalated the Falklands/Malvinas dispute by ordering a two-week halt demand on the Sea Lion offshore oil project and threatening UNCLOS arbitration and ITLOS provisional measures if the work continues. Venezuela oil politics: A Tulane energy forum spotlighted “What About the Venezuelan Oil?” amid claims that major firms remain hesitant to invest heavily despite U.S. promises tied to the Venezuela oil deal. Regional energy risk from global shocks: Reuters reports India’s refiners expect tighter Russian crude supplies in coming months as China outbids them, while Middle East disruptions keep global oil and shipping pressures elevated. Brazil power transition push: WEG plans to double output of a Brazilian battery storage factory to 4 GWh ahead of key auctions, signaling momentum for grid-scale storage alongside ongoing energy mix shifts.

Forest Carbon & Article 6 Momentum: At Climate Week NYC, Latin America and partners pushed forest carbon and Article 6 options, with Brazil’s Tropical Forest Forever Facility aiming to reach $10B (at $7.3B) and Colombia signaling new forest-nature finance support. Oil Market Shock: Oil prices jumped after Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reviving supply-risk fears and feeding into higher energy costs. Caribbean Carbon Policy: A UK-backed UWI report says Trinidad & Tobago should consider a national carbon tax with offset flexibility to protect industrial competitiveness under CBAM exposure. Venezuela Politics Meets Energy Reality: Opposition figures and officials renewed calls around Machado’s return and elections, while the broader backdrop remains US access to Venezuela’s oil resources. Gas & Oil Developments: ReconAfrica reported progress toward horizontal drilling at Namibia’s Kavango West 1X and updates from Angola soil sampling and Gabon seismic reprocessing. Finance Watch: Brazil’s credit-fund boom shows stress signals, with receivables funds hitting R$1tn as loan quality deteriorates. Trade & Energy Links: US-China tariff lists were released after the Trump-Xi meeting, while soybeans were notably excluded—an indirect hit to agricultural-linked energy demand.

Venezuela-US Energy Tensions: Three Iran-linked crude tankers carrying about $600M in seized oil are crossing the Atlantic toward the U.S., keeping pressure on maritime enforcement and prize-law seizures. Diesel Export Shockwatch: Trump says he’s “very seriously” considering a U.S. diesel export ban to cool prices, with lawmakers warning of harvest-season impacts and industry pushing alternatives like excise-tax changes. Caribbean Power & Resilience: A Guyana-focused push argues oil wealth must translate into grid and power-system upgrades, while regional leaders urge faster resilience and investment. Colombia Gas Supply Stress: Colombia faces gas rationing after a technical failure at a regasification facility, highlighting how infrastructure hiccups can quickly hit energy availability. Brazil Election-Era Fuel Support: Brazil extends fuel price relief amid election uncertainty, underscoring how politics and affordability keep shaping energy policy. Shipping & Fuel Markets: Tanker and clean-product rates trend upward as Strait of Hormuz risk reroutes flows, while ethanol is gaining attention as a shipping fuel option.

Venezuela–US Oil Politics: A new report says the Trump administration still hasn’t given the green light needed to move forward with the Citgo sale process, keeping Venezuela’s debt and US refining plans in limbo. UNGA Energy Diplomacy: India’s Jaishankar met Venezuela’s foreign minister on the sidelines of UN General Assembly talks, with energy cooperation highlighted as “gaining momentum.” Caribbean Resilience Funding: Trinidad and Tobago tourism operators are pushing for faster, bigger investment and better access to financing and upgrades—an indirect reminder that energy and infrastructure capacity underpin tourism recovery. US–Iraq Supply Update: The US resumed crude imports from Iraq at about 51,000 bpd on average, while Canada remains the top supplier to the US market. Regional Energy Security Watch: Colombia’s gas supply is under strain after a technical failure at a regasification facility, triggering gas rationing. Cuba Tourism Shock: Cuba’s international arrivals plunged 64.4% in the first eight months of 2026, deepening pressure on the island’s broader energy-linked economy.

Cuba–U.S. Energy Tensions: Cuba’s foreign minister Bruno Rodríguez told the UN that Washington’s fuel restrictions amount to an “energy blockade” and “act of collective punishment,” warning that thousands of containers are being detained, while Trump said he expects a deal and doesn’t foresee military action. Venezuela Political-Energy Pivot: Venezuela’s interim president Delcy Rodríguez returned from the U.S. without agreements or an election date, as analysts say Washington’s leverage over Caracas remains central; meanwhile, Venezuela’s interim government also agreed with opposition leaders to reform the Supreme Court candidate selection process. Brazil Power Sector Shift: Brazil’s renewables push continues—solar, wind and bioenergy are expanding even as oil output rises—while the government extended a diesel subsidy to cushion volatile fuel prices. Regional Gas/Power Pressure: Colombia moved into gas rationing after a regasification technical failure, underscoring how quickly supply disruptions can hit households and industry. Oil Market Volatility: Oil prices slid on renewed Iran–U.S. diplomacy chatter, with Hormuz reopening proposals adding uncertainty for global shipping and Latin American fuel costs. Energy Infrastructure & Tech: Meta unveiled its Petal undersea cable, a reminder that data demand is accelerating alongside energy transition needs.

Venezuela-US Energy Diplomacy: Delcy Rodríguez left New York with no concrete deals on debt, energy or mining, and no election date—despite high-visibility meetings with Donald Trump and UNGA rhetoric about “full democracy.” Oil Market Shock: A proposed US diesel export ban is back in focus as global supply tightens and prices climb, with analysts warning any restriction would ripple well beyond the US. Colombia Energy Pivot: Colombia will resume oil and gas exploration and sign new hydrocarbon contracts, including fracking, if environmental criteria are met—signaling a sharp break from Petro-era slowdown. Venezuela Investment Push: Halliburton signed MoUs with Eneva and WESCA to pursue Venezuela oil and gas opportunities, while TotalEnergies is also positioning a potential return via a new government MoU. Regional Oil Cooperation: Mozambique and Petrobras signed an agreement to collaborate across Mozambique’s oil industry, including studies from exploration through marketing. Brazil Renewables Cost Trend: Brazil’s PV system prices rose 7% in H1 2026 for small distributed projects, reflecting higher equipment and integration costs. Climate Transition Talk: Ireland and Tuvalu will co-host a next July conference on a “just transition away from fossil fuels,” building on last year’s UN-linked momentum.

Iran Sanctions & Shipping: Three tankers carrying nearly $600M of seized Iranian crude appear to be heading toward the U.S., raising fresh questions about possible forfeiture moves as U.S. forces cite “right of visit” inspections. Colombia Gas Crunch: Colombia begins scheduled natural gas rationing after a technical failure at its LNG regasification terminal (SPEC LNG) cuts delivery capacity, with homes, hospitals and power generation prioritized. Venezuela Election Delay: Venezuela’s long-awaited vote could slip a year or more as court and electoral-body overhauls are planned, with sources citing slow urgency and complex reforms. Argentina Energy/Finance: YPF keeps fuel price increases to about 1% despite a much larger jump in global oil, using a “price cushion” approach to absorb shocks. Regional Energy Diplomacy: Petrobras says a U.S. diesel export ban is unlikely and Brazil has cargoes booked for October; separate reporting also flags broader diesel price pressure tied to Middle East tensions.

Venezuela-U.S. Oil Deal Fallout: Trump says Venezuelan crude will “top out” the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, while Venezuelan protesters demand transparency and lawyers push back in court on Maduro’s immunity. UN Diplomacy in Motion: Delcy Rodríguez met Trump at UNGA sidelines, and Amcham T&T welcomed the Kamla–Rodríguez meeting as a path to deeper T&T–Venezuela cooperation including energy and security. Caribbean Energy Push: The Bahamas is exploring ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) with a feasibility study, aiming to pair power with cooling and desalination benefits. Argentina LNG Financing: The Andes-Atlantic Corridor gets a boost as the U.S. EXIM signals up to $6B support for Argentina LNG tied to Vaca Muerta. Regional Security & Energy: Rubio heads to Caribbean talks on security, migration, drug trafficking, and energy security as Washington tightens pressure on Cuba and seeks leverage on Venezuela. Brazil Financial Crime Watch: Brazil’s “Hidden Carbon” operation targets an alleged fuel-linked laundering structure involving Banco Genial.

U.S.-China Energy & Tech: Trump and Xi kicked off their Washington summit with trade truce talk and AI guardrails, keeping tariffs, rare earths and Taiwan in the background. Cuba Pressure via UN: The Trump administration is weighing tighter travel controls for Cuban officials returning to the UN, as Havana denounces an “oil siege.” Diesel Export Shock Risk: Trump floated a possible diesel export ban to ease U.S. fuel prices, but officials and experts warn it could tighten global supply and lift prices further. Mexico–South Korea Oil/Industry Push: Mexico and South Korea agreed to a 2026-2030 action plan covering crude oil, critical resources, AI, aerospace and defense, plus a revised investment treaty path. Colombia–Iran Break: Colombia severed diplomatic ties with Iran, citing security concerns tied to terrorism links and Strait of Hormuz disruption. Caribbean Climate Resilience: UN talks backed sea-level-rise statehood protections, while Venezuela urged just-transition climate action and adaptation funding. Power & Grid Access in Panama: The Guna in Panama are debating high-voltage transmission and a major road to connect their region.