AGP Executive Report

Brazil’s Energy Politics: Data-center growth is prompting state proposals on water use, environmental permits and transparency. Separately, authorities say more than 1,000 fuel stations were linked to R$52 billion in sales with very low tax collection, in a scheme tied to organized crime. Lula’s government has also cut fuel taxes ahead of the runoff. Gas and Power: Brazil aims to lift natural-gas output to 135 million cubic metres a day by 2036. In Venezuela, new equipment and spare parts are being brought in to repair the battered power grid, while Cuba is pressing ahead with renewables amid US oil restrictions. Storage and Supply: Four-hour batteries now beat gas peakers on cost in all 43 markets assessed in a new report, a shift with implications for Latin America’s power planning. Oil’s climb above $100 a barrel as Middle East supply risks mount adds pressure across the region. Regional Outlook: The IMF cut its 2026 growth forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean to 2.3%, citing an energy shock and limited gains from the AI boom.

Oil Markets: Brent climbed near $107 a barrel as attacks on Saudi Arabia and tankers near the Strait of Hormuz revived supply fears, adding pressure to fuel-importing economies across the region. Brazil: The government cut fuel taxes ahead of the presidential runoff, while aiming to raise natural gas output to 135 million cubic metres a day by 2036. Venezuela: New equipment and spare parts are being sent to help repair the country’s battered power grid. Mexico: Pemex needs nearly $110 billion to meet its production targets, as the government considers “sustainable” fracking to curb reliance on U.S. gas imports. Clean Energy: Chile’s Engie commissioned an 802-MWh battery system, while Guyana’s renewable capacity is projected to nearly double by 2031. Cuba is also pressing ahead with renewable-energy plans amid a U.S. oil blockade.

Cuba’s Fuel Crisis: Havana denied links to 90 biodiesel shipments seized by the U.S., as restrictions deepen fuel, electricity and water shortages. Venezuelan Crude: Authorized flows are returning toward historical levels, potentially restoring Reliance Industries’ access to discounted heavy oil for its Indian refinery. Electric Mobility: Brazil’s Vammo says it has passed 10 million battery swaps and reached profitability, with expansion to Campinas next. Energy Transition: Guyana expects renewable capacity to nearly double by 2031, while regional leaders urge closer cooperation on long-term energy planning. Climate Liability: Brazilian prosecutors are seeking US$108 million from Shell over alleged links between its operations and deadly 2024 floods.

Oil Markets: Brent rose above $105 a barrel as Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz heightened supply concerns. Brazil: Prosecutors are seeking $108 million from Shell over deadly 2024 floods. Regional Planning: At OLADE’s energy week, Guyana’s Prime Minister Mark Phillips urged Latin American and Caribbean governments to plan for stronger, more connected power grids to meet rising demand and climate risks. Investment and Supply: Brazil’s latest offshore auction awarded seven exploration blocks to companies including Petrobras, Equinor and QatarEnergy. Mexico is also weighing “sustainable” fracking to reduce reliance on U.S. gas, drawing local opposition.

Cuba’s Solar Lifeline: Solar panels and batteries are helping households and businesses ride out repeated blackouts. U.S. solar-equipment exports to Cuba reached $6.3 million in the first seven months of 2026, up sharply from 2025, though China remains the main supplier. Regional Renewables: IRENA launched a Latin America and Caribbean partnership in Santo Domingo to turn energy-transition plans into projects and investment; renewables already provide about two-thirds of the region’s electricity. Chile’s Lithium Frontier: The rush to extract lithium from the Atacama salt flats promises battery supplies but raises concerns over water, ecosystems and nearby communities. Mexico’s Gas Challenge: Mexico is weighing fracking to curb U.S. gas imports, while Pemex needs nearly $110 billion to meet its output targets. Brazil’s Energy Shift: The country awarded seven offshore exploration blocks and is funding battery projects, even as a study warns that opening its retail power market could bring credit and liquidity risks.

Venezuela’s Power Recovery: The government says it has restored 600 megawatts of the 800 MW lost after earthquakes and plans further capacity additions, alongside a proposed law opening generation, transmission and distribution to private firms. Mexico’s Energy Mix: Mexico is considering “sustainable” fracking to curb imports, but an IISD assessment argues that renewables and supporting infrastructure would better reduce reliance on US energy and the risks posed by just 2.4 days of gas storage. Brazil’s Fuel Costs: The government has cut fuel prices ahead of the presidential runoff, a move that puts energy costs in focus as voters head to the polls. Cuba’s Fuel Crisis: A bakery in Artemisa has replaced diesel with marabú firewood to keep its ovens running, underscoring the depth of the country’s fuel shortages. Regional Cooperation: Guyana urged stronger collaboration on energy security and sustainability at the OLACDE meeting in the Dominican Republic. Brazil’s Flood Liability: Prosecutors are seeking US$108 million from Shell over deadly 2024 floods.

Brazil—Climate Liability: Prosecutors are seeking US$108 million from Shell over deadly 2024 floods, putting oil-company responsibility for climate damage in the spotlight. Offshore Oil: China Offshore Oil Engineering expects to bid for a Petrobras FPSO contract in 2027, targeting its first award in Brazil. Brazil—Oil Auctions: The country raised R$3.5 billion in an oil-block auction led by Petrobras. Argentina—Power Demand: President Javier Milei is pitching data centres to investors, but major projects remain largely at the announcement stage as AI drives demand for energy-intensive infrastructure. Fuel Prices: Lula’s government lowered fuel prices ahead of the election runoff. Regional Grid: Colombia suspended electricity exports to Ecuador over concerns about domestic supply. Oil Markets: Hurricane Isaias shut in more than 60% of US Gulf oil production, adding to supply worries and pressure on global prices.

Brazilian Fuel Measures: Lula’s government cut federal taxes on gasoline imports and sales for 30 days and boosted diesel-import subsidies, just over two weeks before a tight presidential runoff. Storage Investment: Brazil allocated $860 million for batteries, backing a technology increasingly important to grid reliability and renewable integration. Offshore Expansion: QatarEnergy, Petrobras and other companies won seven exploration blocks in Brazil’s latest offshore auction. Supply Shifts: South American crude exports rose 33.1% year on year in January–September, even as global seaborne loadings fell. Regional Gas Security: Mexico is addressing tighter U.S. gas supplies after Kinder Morgan restored shipments following an outage. Caribbean Power: The Dominican Republic plans to tender more than 2,500 MW of energy and battery-storage projects by 2028.

Gulf Supply: Hurricane Isaias forced shutdowns of nearly two-thirds of U.S. Gulf oil output, adding fresh supply risk to already volatile markets. Chile Storage: Grenergy secured US$460 million in financing for a 446MW solar-plus-storage portfolio. Brazil’s Energy Push: The government earmarked US$860 million for batteries, while an offshore auction awarded seven blocks to Petrobras, QatarEnergy and other companies. Regional Projects: The Dominican Republic plans to tender more than 2,500MW of energy and storage projects by 2028. Venezuela’s Gas Sector: Baker Hughes signed agreements to upgrade gas infrastructure as the country pursues new energy partnerships. Cross-Border Power: Colombia halted electricity exports to Ecuador over supply concerns; Kinder Morgan has restored natural gas flows to Mexico after a pipeline outage.

Venezuela’s Energy Push: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez says the country is negotiating 44 new energy agreements as it seeks investment and broader strategic ties. Gulf Supply Risks: Hurricane Isaias has forced major shutdowns in Gulf of Mexico oil production, helping push crude prices higher and adding to market volatility. Brazil Offshore: QatarEnergy, Petrobras and Equinor were among the winners of seven exploration blocks in Brazil’s latest pre-salt auction, expanding their offshore positions. Power and Storage: The Dominican Republic plans to tender more than 2,500 megawatts of energy and battery-storage projects for delivery toward 2028. Gas Security: Mexico is taking steps to address reduced natural-gas supplies from the United States, underscoring the risks of relying on cross-border imports.

Oil-market shock: Brent jumped about 5% to $105 a barrel as attacks on Gulf shipping and Tropical Storm Isaias disrupted supply; Shell and Chevron curtailed offshore output in the Gulf of Mexico. Trinidad and Tobago: Natural gas liquids production rose for a second straight year, reaching about 18,000 barrels a day in 2025, though lower gas deliveries to processing plants remain a concern. Brazil offshore: Petrobras, Equinor and QatarEnergy were among the winners of seven blocks in the country’s latest pre-salt auction, expanding exploration portfolios. Venezuela: Baker Hughes signed deals to support oil and gas infrastructure, while Reliance-led purchases helped push Indian imports of Venezuelan crude to a near seven-year high. Regional power and gas: Colombia suspended electricity exports to Ecuador over supply risks, and Mexico is taking steps to manage reduced natural gas supplies from the United States.

Amazon Solar: Off-grid solar is bringing water pumps to remote communities in Brazil, replacing diesel generators and helping residents prepare for severe drought. Brazil’s Offshore Push: Petrobras and Equinor each won two blocks in the latest pre-salt auction, which awarded seven of 13 areas and secured 530 million reais in signing bonuses. Venezuela’s Energy Rebuild: Baker Hughes signed agreements to upgrade natural-gas pipelines, while Shell is also pursuing Venezuelan gas opportunities. But a fire forced a shutdown at the Cardón refinery, underscoring the country’s aging infrastructure challenges. Regional Power: Colombia suspended electricity exports to Ecuador over concerns about domestic supply, highlighting the strain on cross-border energy links.

Venezuela Refining: A fire and explosion forced a shutdown at Cardón, the country’s second-largest refinery, adding pressure to an already strained energy system. Crude Flows: India’s Venezuelan oil imports are forecast to more than double in October to a near seven-year high, as discounted barrels help replace costlier Russian crude. Gas Infrastructure: Baker Hughes signed agreements to upgrade Venezuela’s natural-gas pipelines, while Shell is also pursuing the country’s gas potential. Colombia’s Energy Debate: The new government is backing a return to fracking pilot projects, citing dwindling gas supplies; opponents warn of risks to wetlands, waterways and local communities. Oil Wealth: Guyana’s economy is forecast to grow 23.7% this year on the oil boom, but the World Bank says stronger public investment and institutions are needed to spread the gains. Regional Projects: Eni is targeting a year-end investment decision for an Argentina LNG development, while Petrobras reported another oil discovery offshore in the Amazon frontier.

Venezuela Power Crisis: Daily, hours-long outages are disrupting essential care, with dialysis patients in Valencia describing treatment interruptions and worsening health as clinic backups fail and heat rises. Venezuela Energy & Diplomacy: The National Assembly approved new ambassador appointments to Belgium and Portugal, while science updates highlight biotechnological work using microalgae and bacteria to biodegrade oil-pollution compounds. Mexico LNG Disruption: New Fortress Energy shut in its Altamira LNG export facility off Mexico’s coast after a mechanical issue involving a gas turbine. Argentina Land & Sovereignty Fight: Unions, political groups, and human rights organizations protested a Supreme Court ruling that reactivates rural land deregulation and enables foreign buyers to purchase national land, pushing Congress to act. Argentina LNG/Upstream Momentum: Eni targets a year-end FID for Argentina’s LNG FLNG development, and TotalEnergies plans a $1.5 billion offshore Argentina project. Regional Outlook: World Bank forecasts point to slower growth across Latin America and the Caribbean in 2026, adding pressure to energy investment and affordability.

Venezuela Energy Rebuild: Baker Hughes signed deals with PDVSA and partners to restore natural gas infrastructure and build an integrated gas value chain, with a stated goal of enabling future LNG exports. Brazil Power & Politics: Brazil’s election heads to a runoff after Flávio Bolsonaro led in the first round; analysts warn a rightward shift could reshape ties with the US and China while keeping China’s economic pull intact. Argentina–UK Offshore Oil Tensions: Argentina’s foreign minister said the country will stop the Falklands from exploiting offshore oilfields as part of a “peaceful” sovereignty strategy. Grid & Reliability in Venezuela: CORPOELEC announced partial road closures for autotransformer transfers, while other coverage highlights ongoing electricity restoration efforts amid protests. Regional Investment Signals: Paraguay inched closer to investment grade as Fitch affirmed BB+ with a positive outlook, citing growth, lower debt, and hydro power cushioning energy costs. Energy Infrastructure in South Africa: Eskom plans to facilitate more data-centre construction, citing recycled water and growing electricity demand. Renewables Deal: Ashurst Perkins Coie advised Algebris Investments on acquiring Spain-based Vector Renewables, expanding its Latin America footprint.

Brazil Offshore Bids: Brazil’s regulator ANP will auction a big package of offshore exploration acreage in two permanent-offer rounds, including deepwater and pre-salt blocks in Campos, Santos, Ceará and Espírito Santo, with sessions set for Oct. 7 in Rio. Venezuela Gas Push: Baker Hughes signed agreements to support Venezuela’s natural gas infrastructure, aiming to boost production and power generation in the near term and LNG exports later. Colombia LNG Scrutiny: Ecopetrol asked Colombia’s Fiscalía to investigate how it awarded the Regasificadora del Pacífico LNG import contract, citing possible irregularities around influence peddling, conflicts of interest and delays. Alaska LNG Cost Debate: A Reuters-linked report says Alaska LNG is far pricier than other U.S. LNG projects, with critics warning political involvement could raise long-term risk. Venezuela “Blood Gold” Blocked: A report says U.S.-linked Venezuelan gold sits unprocessed because refiners won’t certify it under human-rights sourcing rules. Energy Security & Heat: UN climate chief Simon Stiell warned extreme heat is making pregnancy and childbirth more dangerous, especially for vulnerable communities. LNG Supply Shift: Oman replaced the U.S. as India’s top LNG supplier in September, while Qatar’s share fell sharply amid disruption.