AGP Executive Report

Venezuela–Trinidad oil spill dispute: Caracas says a new spill is coming from Trinidad and Tobago, but Trinidad’s energy ministry says it has found “no evidence” yet and is running a joint probe with sea vessels and drones to identify the source and what the substance is. US–Venezuela security and energy backdrop: The US says it killed Tren de Aragua leader “Niño Guerrero” in a coordinated strike with Venezuelan forces, underscoring how security operations are reshaping the region’s political and business risk. Renewables momentum in the Dominican Republic: Solar is leading clean power growth, with installed solar capacity up sharply since 2020 and renewables now exceeding 2,000 MW as the country pushes for a larger share of electricity from clean sources. Methane monitoring shift: A new approach using satellite-based methane readings is starting to override what oil and gas producers report, with implications for how leaks are counted and regulated from 2027. Jamaica resilience spending: Jamaica is channeling post-hurricane recovery funds through a central authority, with financing aimed at boosting GDP by more than 20% while accelerating delivery. Energy shock spillover: Global energy disruptions tied to the Middle East are expected to keep supply chains, shipping, and commodity markets unsettled for months, feeding into higher costs and slower growth.

Energy Shock Outlook: An analysis warns the US-Iran conflict is turning into a broader energy, logistics, fertilizer, food and financial shock, with global growth risks extending into 2027 and oil systems unlikely to normalize quickly. Trade & Energy Policy: Trump’s latest USMCA comments add uncertainty to North American trade timing, while rising oil prices are also expected to boost biofuel demand—raising food-crisis concerns as fertilizer constraints bite. Biofuels & Fuel Switching: India’s launch of E85 and flex-fuel vehicles highlights how countries are trying to cut crude imports via ethanol blends, a strategy that could ripple into regional feedstock and power demand. Venezuela Energy & Legal/Market Moves: Venezuela’s Shell-linked Loran gas push continues, while a US appeals court upheld a $108M arbitration award against Venezuela—another reminder that energy recovery is tied up with legal and financing risk. Cuba Sanctions Pressure: Cuba again denounces US sanctions on CUPET as worsening daily fuel access and health impacts. El Niño Climate Risk: The UN and WMO flag extreme weather and heat risks tied to El Niño, warning of knock-on effects for agriculture, hydropower and electricity demand. Regional Oil Spill Dispute: Trinidad’s Heritage Petroleum says it found no evidence of a major spill after Venezuela raised alarms, keeping the cross-border blame game active. Critical Minerals: Peru fast-tracks lithium and uranium as strategic minerals, aiming to speed permitting for key projects tied to the energy transition.

Venezuela–Shell Gas Push: Venezuela granted Shell an exploration license for the offshore Loran gas field, positioning the project to feed LNG ambitions via Trinidad and Tobago. Oil Spill Fallout: Caracas accused Trinidad and Tobago of a new oil spill reaching Venezuelan shores, demanding transparency and warning of risks to marine ecosystems and fishing. BP Capital Recycling: BP has started a process to sell minority stakes in Gulf of Mexico projects Kaskida and Tiber as it refocuses on oil and gas under CEO Meg O’Neill. Caribbean Energy + EU Money: Curaçao and other Dutch Caribbean islands could see a near-doubling of EU Overseas Countries and Territories funding, with renewable energy and digital infrastructure among the priorities. Cuba Fuel Squeeze: Cuba’s energy crisis is hitting schools, with Díaz-Canel announcing economic reforms aimed at attracting investment and easing shortages amid U.S. pressure on CUPET. Venezuela Mining Crackdown: FANB launched a large operation in Bolívar state targeting illegal gold mining linked to armed groups, displacing hundreds amid no official casualty figures. El Niño Watch: NOAA confirmed El Niño conditions are strengthening, raising the odds of extreme weather that could disrupt food and power systems across the region.

Venezuela Gas Deal: Venezuela granted Shell a license to develop and export natural gas from the Loran field, reviving a project abandoned for 23 years and positioning Caracas to push gas exports after reforms opened the sector to foreign investment. Cuba Energy Pressure: The U.S. moved again against Cuba’s state oil company, tightening the fuel import squeeze and raising humanitarian and outage concerns as the blockade deepens. Oil Market Shockwatch: With the Strait of Hormuz disruption still shaping flows, OPEC cut demand growth forecasts and traders weighed renewed Iran risk as oil prices wobbled. Biofuels vs Food: Rising crude prices are expected to boost biofuel demand, but analysts warn it could intensify food and fertilizer pressures—especially where fertilizer routes are disrupted. Caribbean Power Upgrade: Dominica is bringing geothermal onto its national grid, entering commissioning with outages tied to integration teething issues. Climate Risk: Scientists warn a strengthening El Niño could bring costly extremes, with knock-on effects for agriculture and energy systems across regions. USMCA Uncertainty: Trump signaled the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade pact could expire in 2036 unless renewed, adding another layer of uncertainty for regional energy-linked supply chains.

US Sanctions Cuba’s Oil Backbone: The U.S. Treasury added Cuba’s state oil and gas firm Cupet to its blacklist, tightening the de facto fuel blockade as Rubio accuses Havana of “weaponizing energy.” Middle East Energy Shock: Trump escalated threats against Iran, saying the U.S. could seize Kharg Island and take “total control” of oil and gas markets, as OPEC reported Iran output falling while Venezuela rises. Venezuela Compliance Update: OFAC revised seven general licenses for Venezuela’s oil, gas, petrochemicals and mining, updating rules for who can operate and how disputes are handled. Argentina LNG Progress: Argentina’s Southern LNG floating export project advanced with a key contract awarded for the 6 mtpa plant. Cuba Fuel Deal Blocked: The U.S. put on hold a Vanguard Energy plan to ship 250,000 barrels of gasoline/diesel to Cuba, citing missing U.S. licensing. El Niño Declared: NOAA confirmed El Niño formation, with forecasts pointing to a potentially historic event that could intensify extreme weather across the Americas. Mexico Trade Uncertainty: Trump again signaled USMCA may not be renewed, raising alarms for energy and agriculture supply chains tied to Canada and Mexico. World Cup Meets Protest Reality: Mexico City’s opener drew security clashes outside Estadio Azteca, underscoring how social unrest can disrupt major events.

Biofuels & food pressure: Rising oil prices tied to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions are pushing governments to expand ethanol blending, with experts warning demand could surge and squeeze food and fertilizer markets. Cuba fuel access: The U.S. authorized a shipment of 250,000 barrels of diesel and gasoline to Cuba, a major commercial shift that could ease shortages but also highlights how fragile the island’s energy system remains. Cuba transition politics: Analysts say any U.S.-driven opening for Cuba could bring hard tradeoffs that won’t sit well with parts of the Cuban-American exile community. Venezuela mining crackdown: Venezuela deployed troops against illegal miners in the Orinoco gold belt, underscoring the security and human-rights risks around extractive zones. El Niño risk: NOAA and other forecasters warn El Niño could intensify coastal flooding and heat impacts in 2026, with exposure flagged for parts of Latin America. Brazil-Korea energy ties: Brazil and POSCO’s partnership deepens, but a reported POSCO debt hole in Brazil is casting a shadow over the relationship. EVs & ethanol momentum: India’s E85 launch and flex-fuel push show how fuel policy is being used to reduce oil import dependence—an approach echoing across the region. OPEC oil squeeze: Reuters reports OPEC output fell to the lowest since 2000, driven by Iran export cuts and U.S. blockade effects, feeding broader price volatility. Solar & smart infrastructure: Market reports point to continued growth in solar lighting and smart ports, reflecting ongoing investment in grid-light solutions and port modernization.

Energy Geopolitics: The U.S. says it fired on an Iranian oil tanker trying to run its blockade, disabling the Palau-flagged vessel in the Gulf of Oman as Washington threatens more strikes—raising the risk of renewed disruptions to regional fuel flows. Grid & Digital Demand: Voltalia secured a 322MW transmission capacity deal with Brazil’s ONS at the Pecém complex in Ceará to power data center projects, with plans for dedicated wind generation to supply decarbonized electricity. Transport Policy: U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said nearly 100 ships have used a Jones Act waiver to move fuel between U.S. ports, aimed at easing price pressure tied to the Iran conflict. Climate Finance (Caribbean): St. Vincent and the Grenadines’ PM Godwin Friday urged a global overhaul of development lending, arguing “one size fits all” finance rules fail small island states facing climate-fueled disasters. Food & Inputs: U.S. urea prices fell sharply back toward pre-conflict levels, but El Niño-linked drought risk could still push food inflation.

Cuba Energy Crisis: The UN says US sanctions and a fuel blockade are driving acute shortages, with children dying as medical supplies run short, while Havana’s grid failures and fuel deficits keep blackouts going. US–Cuba Pressure: US Defense chief Pete Hegseth is set to visit Guantánamo as Washington tightens pressure on the island, in parallel with the worsening energy squeeze. Venezuela Oil Under Scrutiny: A report estimates nearly $8B in Venezuelan crude has flowed through US-controlled exports since January, but with minimal transparency on sales, revenues, or use. Mexico Grid & Mobility Under Strain: A solar-powered tricycle workshop in Havana highlights how residents are improvising energy solutions amid power cuts and fuel scarcity. Suriname–China Energy Cooperation: Suriname’s public works minister says the country wants deeper China ties in infrastructure and green development as it prepares for large-scale oil and gas. Solar Tech Momentum: A market outlook projects perovskite solar cells could jump to ~$2.7B by 2028, fueled by flexible solar and efficiency gains. Flex-Fuel Push: India launches E85 and flex-fuel vehicles to cut crude imports and boost ethanol demand. EV Export Surge: China’s passenger car exports rose 73% in May as higher fuel prices lift EV interest, with Latin America flagged as a target market. World Cup Disruption: Protesters block access to Mexico City’s Azteca Stadium ahead of the 2026 opener, underscoring social tensions around major energy-intensive events.

Venezuela Power Sector: IMPSA says it’s renegotiating a long-stalled hydroelectric contract with Corpoelec, aiming to rehabilitate two Macagua units and potentially add up to 672 MW—an effort tied to payment and sanctions hurdles. Venezuela Grid Reform: Venezuela’s National Assembly has opened a public consultation on a partial reform of the Organic Law on the Electrical System and Service, seeking modernization and stronger protection for the national grid. Nuclear Nonproliferation: Venezuela reiterated at the IAEA that attacks or threats against peaceful nuclear facilities violate international law, calling for a no-double-standards consensus. Regional Energy Security: At the Al-Attiyah Foundation CEO Roundtable in Doha, leaders framed energy security as the dominant driver reshaping climate and investment priorities. Oil Market Shockwatch: Fitch expects the Strait of Hormuz disruption to be a temporary logistical shock, with Brent averaging lower in 2026 if the waterway reopens by late July. Brazil Debt Relief: Brazil’s Novo Desenrola program says it has helped 6 million people in its first days, clearing small debts and easing credit recovery for low- and middle-income borrowers.

Flex-Fuel Push: India launched E85 (85% ethanol) and a flex-fuel passenger vehicle to cut crude imports and boost domestic ethanol demand. Energy Security & Trade: Nigeria reported a record Q1 2026 merchandise trade surplus as the Dangote refinery ramp-up and Middle East-linked supply disruptions shifted demand toward refined products. Cuba Aid & Fuel Crisis: Mexico and Belize delivered 1,700 tons of basic goods to Cuba amid ongoing energy and economic shortages. LNG & Infrastructure Deals: Argentina’s first LNG export corridor to India moved forward as APSEZ secured a 10-year marine services contract, backed by $70M investment. Renewables Buildout: Mexico awarded 7.4 GW of renewable capacity in its first mixed investment tender, signaling continued scaling of distributed generation. Grid Resilience: The World Bank added $9M to help the fuel-import-dependent Marshall Islands absorb sharply higher energy costs. Latin America Construction Materials: Vinci Construction agreed to buy Grupo TDM’s geosynthetics division in Peru, expanding ground-tech capacity across the region. Energy Transition Watch: A UN report warns AI could drive major growth in electricity use and water demand by 2030, undercutting efficiency gains.

Cuba-U.S. Pressure: President Miguel Díaz-Canel says Washington’s “maximum pressure” aims to provoke unrest, citing sanctions that worsen fuel shortages, power disruptions, and daily life. Aviation Fuel Crunch: Airlines at IATA’s Rio meeting warn jet fuel costs could be 70% higher year-on-year, cutting industry profits and likely pushing fares up. Mexico Renewables Push: CFE awarded 37 renewable projects totaling 7,411 MW in its first mixed investment tender, led by solar in the Yucatán and Northeast. Venezuela Power System Reform: Diosdado Cabello says easing electricity-system rules for mixed operation would let industry generate more of its own power, targeting relief for the SEN and adding megawatts in coming weeks. Venezuela-Türkiye Energy Talks: Delcy Rodríguez met Erdogan in Istanbul to expand trade, energy, mining, and logistics, with a stated goal to lift bilateral trade sharply. Food Security Meets Energy Risk: FAO warns Hormuz-linked disruptions threaten fertilizer and production, urging open trade in agricultural inputs and alternative logistics. Bolivia Unrest: President Rodrigo Paz signals a state of emergency and possible military deployment as protests choke supply and drive food and fuel price spikes. Brazil SAF Momentum: IATA says Brazil has the conditions to scale sustainable aviation fuel, leveraging biomass and ethanol feedstocks.

LNG Logistics Deal: Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) won a 10-year marine services contract for Argentina’s first LNG export project to India, via its unit Adani Harbour International and a consortium with Argentina’s Meridian Group; the work covers tug operations for LNG carriers, offshore logistics, supply support and crew transfers, backed by an estimated $70 million investment and supported by multiple high-spec vessels. Cuba Fuel Crisis: Cuba’s worsening fuel shortages are leaving “almendrones” antique cars idle and residents stuck in long waits for gasoline, as rolling blackouts and a deepening energy squeeze—blamed by officials on the U.S. blockade—push households toward scarce cooking fuels and intensify daily hardship. Energy Transition Watch: A new forecast flags needle coke demand surging as electric arc furnace steelmaking and lithium-ion battery anode production expand, with global demand projected to jump from 2.71 million metric tons (2025) to 11.48 million (2035). Resilience Planning (Caribbean): CDEMA’s chief praised Antigua and Barbuda’s new five-year resilience framework as a cross-sector roadmap to manage evolving hazards, including hurricanes, earthquakes, sargassum and oil spills.

Bolivia Energy-Security & Social Stability: Bolivia’s legislature passed a law letting President Rodrigo Paz deploy the military to clear roadblocks, after weeks of anti-government protests that have choked cities with food and medicine shortages. Cuba Humanitarian Supply: Cuba received 1,700 tons of basic goods from Mexico and Belize, underscoring how regional partners are trying to cushion the island’s energy and economic crunch. Venezuela–Guyana Legal Fight: Venezuela said it has “well-founded doubts” about the ICJ process over Essequibo after Guyana signaled it expects the 1899 award to be upheld, reiterating it won’t recognize any ICJ ruling. Aviation Fuel Pressure: IATA cut its 2026 airline profit outlook, warning of a fuel-cost shock tied to the Iran war and higher jet fuel prices—an issue that will ripple into Latin America’s carriers and travel demand. Grid & Market Stress (Heat): A report on extreme heat and wet-bulb survivability highlights rising climate risk that can strain power systems and public health across the region. Nuclear Cooperation: Argentina hosted a U.S.-led SMR workshop, signaling continued interest in next-gen nuclear services and investment.

Argentina Trade Openness: Argentina filed a letter of intent to join the CPTPP, aiming to link up with the UK for the first time since 1982, though accession could take 2–5 years and isn’t guaranteed. Peru Security Politics: Peruvians vote again for president amid rising crime, with a tight race between Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez and a large undecided bloc. Gulf Energy Risk: The U.S. says it shot down Iranian drones threatening the Strait of Hormuz as Iran and regional allies trade missile and drone strikes, keeping a key oil chokepoint under pressure. Airline Fuel Shock: Airlines meeting in Rio face margin strain from Iran-war fuel volatility plus aircraft delivery delays, pushing carriers toward higher fares and tighter capacity. Critical Minerals Watch: A new market read flags copper as likely to flip into a structural deficit by 2026, raising cost and project-timing pressure for producers and portfolio risk for investors. India–Venezuela Energy Push: India and Venezuela keep deepening long-term energy ties as crude flows shift, with officials signaling technical teams and investment interest. Peru Mining Dealmaking: India eyes critical minerals in Peru at WMC 2026, positioning the event as a bridge for investment and supply-chain access.

Power Reliability in the Caribbean: Jamaica restored service after a rare island-wide blackout, with officials calling the situation “unacceptable” and pointing to grid resilience concerns as hurricane season nears. Energy Transition & Critical Minerals: Peru issued a Supreme Decree naming uranium and lithium as “national pillars,” signaling a regulatory shift for the Macusani Plateau and boosting its role in clean-energy tech supply chains. Storm Watch: Mexico’s meteorological agencies are tracking Tropical Storm Amanda, with an 80% chance of cyclone development and potential impacts even if it stays offshore. Grid & Climate Risk: Colombia is bracing for El Niño, with 80% likelihood for the event to start this month and run into early 2027, raising stakes for water, food, and energy production. Oil & Gas Diplomacy: India and Venezuela are deepening energy cooperation as crude imports rise, with talks focused on long-term supply and investment beyond spot cargoes. Brazil Corporate Restructuring: Raízen secured creditor backing for a major out-of-court debt restructuring tied to its sugar, ethanol, and fuel business. Mexico Security for World Cup: Mexico City is increasing police presence around the Zócalo Fan Fest as protests and unrest continue. Bolivia Protests: Police and protesters clashed in Santa Cruz over road blockades tied to calls for President Rodrigo Paz’s resignation, worsening shortages. Sustainability in Sports Venues: FIFA World Cup stadiums advanced green building certifications, with LEED-certified venues adding solar and cutting water and single-use plastics.

Jamaica Grid Shock: Jamaica suffered an island-wide blackout Friday after a system failure, with the Jamaica Public Service (JPS) working to restore power in phases; officials gave no cause or full timeline yet. Venezuela–India Energy Push: Acting President Delcy Rodríguez toured India’s Jamnagar refinery and met leaders in New Delhi and Mumbai to deepen hydrocarbons cooperation as India signals readiness to expand its presence in Venezuela’s reformed oil and gas sector. Colombia–Cuba Power Relief: Colombia shipped about 100 tons of humanitarian aid to Cuba from Cartagena, including solar panels and electrical materials aimed at supporting Cuba’s energy grid amid ongoing crisis conditions. Gulf Tensions, Energy Risk: Fresh US-Iran flare-ups included strikes and missile exchanges involving Kuwait and Bahrain, raising renewed concerns for Strait of Hormuz stability and regional energy flows. Peru Copper Output Up: Peru’s copper production rose 15% year-on-year in early 2026 as key mines reached steady state, strengthening supply outlook for the energy-transition and data-center demand cycle. Guyana Grid Modernization: InterEnergy outlined a roadmap to modernize Guyana’s GPL electricity grid through 2030, targeting a more reliable, resilient, digitally managed network. Colombia Coal Mine Fatality: Seven workers died in a coal mine explosion in central Colombia, with authorities citing methane buildup and launching a formal investigation. India Flex-Fuel Update: India launched E85 fuel in Delhi for flex-fuel vehicles, with officials stressing it is not interchangeable with E20-compatible cars.